Grex Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I have been playing around with an ELO rating system. There have been various threads on this approach, so I won't bore you with the statistical details. So far, I have only developed the system for Italy Serie A, but the results look quite promising. I will post the first selections later today....... but please take note, this is in the early stages of development, so it is strictly a paper trial only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings This is on my todo list. Look forward to seeing how it works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings OK.... here goes with the first two selections. I will try to add more statistics (teams' ELO ratings etc.) next time. Wish me luck..... I think I will need it with Parma :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Good luck with this GREX :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings On prematches there are ELO ratings that you could compare with yours for interests sake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings My system has Milan and Sassuolo but GL :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robotzel78 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Good luck, Grex. I will also test my Elo Ratings on my Excel file, maybe from next season i can have my own Elo system too. I will keep on eye here, to see how your rating goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings On prematches there are ELO ratings that you could compare with yours for interests sake. Thanks for the heads-up on the website. Looks interesting..... but rather long-winded in that you have to go to each fixture independently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings My system has Milan and Sassuolo but GL :lol Well, one of us will be smiling come Sunday evening ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Grex , on the opening page right hand side click " Show all trends" where the ELO rating is. This will list the lot. You can go back a year or more. Can't say I have had much luck with them. May yours work well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Happy days. Good old Parma. I switch it on to see them get winner in Injury time. About time I had some luck. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Good start Grex! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Happy days. Good old Parma. I switch it on to see them get winner in Injury time. About time I had some luck. . Yes, a 94th minute goal wins it for Parma...... a bit lucky perhaps, but they all count. By the way, Dalkent, I hope you didn't bet on Parma on the strength of my selection..... naughty boy :spank.... I did stress this is a trial only ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings No my model picked it out too. Was the only match I did in Italy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Nice one! Good start :clap It's my loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Just a quick comment..... the odds on Lazio have now lengthened to 1.92 (Pinnacle). They have a significantly superior ELO rating compared with Cagliari, and these odds would just about make Lazio a selection. However, the game starts in 15 minutes, and I don't think it is fair to make last-minute selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings I would say just go for it. I mean it's a paper trial so what really counts is to test the system, not to let the folks follow them. btw, I took Lazio earlier (at 1.88), so at least we're on the same boat now :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings I would say just go for it. I mean it's a paper trial so what really counts is to test the system, not to let the folks follow them. btw, I took Lazio earlier (at 1.88), so at least we're on the same boat now :lol You are absolutely right, Dave (especially as Lazio won) :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings One for tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings 87 min pen undoes it Grex :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Yes, you're right, CurlyOne...... another frustrating draw. That makes 2 out of 4 have been spoiled by the dreaded "X". So, I will run an Asian Handicap (0) system in parallel to the straight "home" system. This will give us a "push" (horrible USA sports betting terminology) for the draw and a reduced payout for the win. It is the same as Draw-No-Bet. Let's see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings so far its an excellent start if you are laying the opposition one to consider after enough data is collected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 2, 2013 Author Share Posted November 2, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Three home team selections for the weekend. The system also occasionally throws up "away" selections. Surprisingly, there are two for the weekend (see second table below). The "aways" are generally at very long odds. For example, Catania's odds are over 17.0 :loon and they only have a 9% probability of winning, but that represents odds value of 154%. You may argue what is the point of betting on a team that only has a 9% chance of winning..... but over the long-term (last 5 seasons) this has produced a yield of over 40% on 140 selections. Obviously the "aways" will be a bit of a roller-coaster and I have kept them separate..... also, I have reduced the stake to 5% of the initial bank. Let´s see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Great win for Genoa! Cracking work! Would love to know your system! And what website do you use to find these bets? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Some interesting results..... would have been nice if Torino could have scored a second :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings I have now included Spanish Primera Liga....... both of tonight's games qualify as "Home" selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings One win, one loss last night.... but the yield maintained at 15%. One from La Liga for this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Sorry, duplicate post !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings I am posting tomorrow's selection for SP1 early, as the odds on Español are dropping fast..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2013 Author Share Posted November 9, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Getafe could only manage a draw..... let's hope for better things on Sunday. Two "aways" for Serie A added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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